Trump launched BLS president. Argentina has a lesson for him star-news.press/wp

Earlier this month, President Donald Trump accused a civilian employee of sabotaging him without evidence and releasing her with brief procedures. When doing this, stole a page from an emerging market that wanders by increasing inflation and debt crises as if it were a national sport. Enter Argentina.

Danish economist Lars Christinen – who discussed emerging economies in Latin America and abroad – It is called a name Trump is a “Argentine data”. It indicates an example for nearly two decades, as the Argentine government toppled Graciela Bevacqua. The non -partisan official had refused to keep up with their trick with inflation figures in doctors to support the possibilities of the ruling government in the upcoming national elections.

This episode was in Argentina’s economic novel that never ends again in the United States after Trump paved Dr. Erika Minarker from the work statistics office. It sheds light on the important independent statistics of decisions that flow through each level of society. The reliability of such data is the risks that deal with a blow to the American economy, which belongs to unpredictable consequences.

In the United States, public agencies issue reports of employment growth details, poverty rates, inflation, and more weekly, monthly or annual such as the clock. The federal government depends on these economic data in determining the advantages of social security, income tax arches and more. Then business owners decide the time for families, and families put a monthly budget based on economic conditions.

Trump, though, was criticized in MCNTarfer due to the main cuts to the last two months of jobs. Most economists say it is the product of routine reviews and insomnia employees Below BLS survey capabilities.

In an interview with him recently with Quartz, Bevakua indicated the launch of McNTarfer as a “red sign” for the United States that it says will test the independence of its economic institutions. “The strong credibility BLS has been a model for many countries,” she said, including Argentina.

The CEO of the American Statistics Association, Ronald Vaserstein, compared to Argentina’s disorder. “We were just a very naive to believe that it would happen here at all,” he said. “We are looking at a very similar situation now.”

“I launched”

Bevakua supervised the team that runs the consumer price index in Indic, the Independent Statistics Agency in Argentina. It spent more than two decades in an agency that cultivated a professional reputation in Latin America. The organization developed accurate data even in 1979 when it was an economic minister in the Argentine military dictatorship Try to hide extreme inflation By creating a “meat price index” separately.

Indec did not provide any bones about increased inflationary inflation and number. They published the price measurement cover in the Argentine primary element anyway.

But it will not be the last time the state tried to put its mark on official statistics. The troubles were prepared for Bevacqua in 2006 when Guillermo Moreno, responsible for the newly appointed local trade, prompted to reach the Secret INDC methodology, starting with the specific companies included in the survey before the issuance of consumer prices.

At one point, Moreno Bevakua was dragged into his office. He described her as “non -national” if she does not fall into the queue and issued low inflation numbers favorable to Argentine men, Nestor Kirchner, before the upcoming presidential elections.

Bevaka did not budge. She said that political officials organized a “full pressure campaign” that included an attempt to prevent the Uruguay government from providing a job in the National Statistical Office. It reached its peak in its removal from Indec in January 2007.

“I was expelled because I did not want to change the numbers,” said Bevakua. Kirchner Loyalist has been installed as a substitute. Argentina later stated in that year that the inflation rate decreased from 8.5 % in 2007 from 9.5 % compared to the previous year.

Graciela Bevacqua Statistics at Buenos Aires, Argentina in October 2011.

Christina Kirchner left her husband to become a president of Argentina, and her government obtained the production of defective inflation reports that strengthened her agenda. campaign It was launched Economists in the private sector who have released inflation readings contradict the official personalities. Often, their data showed inflation in the weak rate that the government reported. Bevakua was among the rebel consultants with the threat of prison time and highly declining fines that exceed $ 120,000.

In Indec, the credibility that took generations to build in just a few years was lost. Economy Magazine Stop publishing Indec statistics and described it as “false”. Argentina handle data as better than garbage. Investors flounder in the dark, which paid borrowing costs.

The International Monetary Fund is entering Boinos Aires, such as the school principal who is trying to collect better behavior than a stubborn student. International Monetary Fund Argentina Control In 2013, the state of her distorted data is starkly and demanded that she start cleaning the numbers. Otherwise, Argentina can lose access to critical loans or even confront the expulsion from the organization. This was the first time that the International Monetary Fund punishes a member country in this way.

The president of then Christina Fernandez de Kirchner (L) is waving the crowd next to her husband and outgoing president Nestor Kirchner while they were leaving the Argentine conference in December 2007.

Bvakua eventually overcome investigations. Under a new government, it was appointed to the second Indec function in 2016. INDEC has thrown dozens of experienced statistics. But she regained political independence and began to re -assemble the reliable inflation index, which was reliable in chaos.

Her community still pays the costs of nearly a contract of financial blindness: citizens, companies and investors alike. He referred to the continuous litigation about the accurate value of contracts with modified inflation items that still link the court cage. Last year, Argentina It lost a lawsuit worth $ 1.8 billion Against four hedge boxes in the UK on government securities in which I previously defective Indec data was part of the procedures.

“Trust but verification” environment Spread From the rubble as well. “Until today, after the rebuilding of Indec, many special economic consulting companies continue to survey the supermarket and other prices in order to check that Indec statistics closely track their estimates,” Porzikanski said.

Next BLS president

Analysts say that the United States is facing new strains on handrails. “Everyone expected this from Argentina. It was a country with weak institutions and a history of authoritarian interruption He wrote in a blog post. “It was supposed to prevent checks and balances in the United States exactly this type of abuse.”

This does not mean that institutions do not wander in holding political personalities accountable. In Argentina, Moreno Heal To three years of conditional prison last year and prevented six years from holding his public position.

As ASA Head, Wasserstein in 2012 Send a message To the Ministry of Foreign Affairs to support Bevakua and other Argentine economists who were in the intersection of their government. He spoke in sharp phrases about the launch of McNTarfer. “We are in a position in which others feel sorry for us, and this is embarrassing because it does not make sense,” he said. “There is no reason to happen.”

Trump has since called EJ Antoni, a conservative economist, to replace Mcentarfer above BLS. The reaction of economists on the left and the right who fear that it will interfere with the work of professional technocrats who collect data. Shortly before his nomination, Anthony Suggest a comment Monthly job report.

Wasserstein has provided statistical support messages in Europe and Australia. He argues that the next BLS president must maintain the agency’s independence and ensure its financing properly. He says that the United States, which has fallen to a statistical decline similar to Argentina.

“I don’t think we have reached an irreversible point.”. “But I think we have reached a point where it will take a lot of time to recover from the damage that has already been done.”