The American Federal Reserve says artificial intelligence will not enhance human productivity yet

Entrepreneial intelligence is not just another technical noise cycle that must die but instead is to change the game for human productivity, according to the Federal Reserve. Nevertheless, the great warning is the way to get there will be “slowly slow” and “risky”.

in The modern paper published by the Board of Governors, the Federal Reserve BankThe researchers suggest that the noise around the obstetric artificial intelligence may not be a long -term bubble and that technology will be a dangerous total economic power, proving that it has revolutionary effects on the productivity of work such as electricity and microscope.

The idea that artificial intelligence Make the workforce more productive Not a pioneer. It has been praised by the executives of companies and many artificial intelligence bulls since it has sparked the typical AI model of Openai Chatgpt crazy intelligence.

But the important thing is that the most powerful economic institution in the country has just expressed a noticeable confidence in the potential of technology. If it is with hunting.

Artificial intelligence can be the following microscope

The paper divides technological innovations into three categories. First, you have innovations such as the light bulb, which greatly increased productivity at the beginning by allowing workers not to be limited to daylight. But once technology is widely adopted, Lightbulb stops providing additional value for the workplace productivity.

“In contrast, two types of technologies emerge as longer on productivity growth,” the researchers write, and artificial intelligence has both characteristics.

The first is “general purposes”, such as Dynamo electric or computer. Dynamo electricity was the first practical electric generator, and continued to provide accelerated productivity growth even after a widespread adoption because it stimulated the relevant innovations and continued to improve itself.

The researchers say that the intrusive intelligence already shows signs that it fits the bill. You have a specialized LLMS for specific fields such as Openai’s Legalgpt that aims to help legal matters, and “Copilots” such as Microsoft Copilot product, which aims to increase offices productivity by integrating obstetric intelligence into corporate operations. Reserve researchers believe that more extremist innovations will come, and this wave will lead the original digital companies.

It is clear that basic technology is creating quickly and will likely continue to do this while developing technology to achieve artificial general intelligence. Meanwhile, the paper indicates that the rapid growth of technology has already gave us more innovations such as Agency AI and Amnesty International models such as Deepseek’s R1.

The second type of technology is called “invention inventions”, and the most prominent examples are a microscope or printing press. Although the microscope is now a common tool, it continues to increase the levels of human productivity by enabling research and development projects.

The Importer IQ was useful in Simulation to understand the nature of the universeand In new drug discoveriesAnd more. The paper indicates that there was a significant rise, starting in 2023, for companies that indicate artificial intelligence in the contexts of research and development and in corporate profits calls, indicating that the integration of artificial intelligence with the innovation of companies has already begun.

There is always hunting

Unfortunately, this confidence comes with a warning. Artificial intelligence will be a blessing for economic and productive growth, but it is unlikely to happen overnight.

The Federal Reserve Paper says that the biggest challenge with artificial intelligence at the present time is not the technology itself: it makes people and companies already use it. While the researchers began to adopt it, most companies outside technology and scientific fields have not worked in their daily operations until now, except for the financing industry. Industry polls show that artificial intelligence adoption is much higher within large companies than small companies.

So, although the obstetric intelligence is likely to enhance our production in general, the effect will be slow. This is because it takes some time, money and other supportive technology such as user interfaces, robots and artificial intelligence agents to make artificial intelligence really useful in the economy. The authors compare it to the changes in the previous large technology, such as the progress of the account, which accumulated for decades before causing a productivity mutation.

The timeline of this mutation is still unknown. Goldman Sachs Economists believe that the effects of Amnesty International on the productivity of work and the growth of GDP in the United States will begin to appear in 2027 and will accelerate the peak in the thirties.

Another danger The Fed Bank indicates with the construction infrastructure for the expected order. Amnesty International’s wide dependence means the need to invest in databases and generating electricity. But investing very quickly can have “catastrophic consequences” when The demand does not grow as expectedThe Federal Reserve, similar to how excessive railways in the nineteenth century led to economic depression at the end of the century.

Despite the warnings, the Federal Reserve is confident that the IQ is a transformation of productivity. But whether this shift is still permanently accelerating and has a major effect such as electric dynamio or microscope will depend on the extent and speed of technology adoption.