91 % MSTR chance, S&P 500 – and Bitcoin becomes the origin of the agency index star-news.press/wp

Walton estimates that Bitcoin will need a decrease less than 95,240 dollars before the end of June to pay Q2 profits for the strategy without the rehabilitation line. Based on the current pricing, this requires a decrease of more than 10 % within days.

As of June 23, the company owns 592,345 Bitcoins at a cost of an average acquisition of $ 70,666, with total expenses of about $ 41.84 billion. With Bitcoin trading at $ 107,213 on June 25, the company’s Crypto Holdings value exceeds $ 63.5 billion.

These unrealized gains play a direct role in the reported strategy profits, which are the final factor under review to include the S&P 500.

Why Bitcoin’s history prefers strategic possibilities

Walton has reached 91 % by analyzing the historical bitcoin behavior across 3,928 of the six -day windows between September 2014 and June 2025.

Walton said in a hadith broadcast: “Returning to September 17, 2014, for six days, the price of bitcoin decreased by more than 10 % 343 times.” “There were 3585 periods as it did not decrease more than 10 %. So 8.7 % of those periods saw this type of decline.”

Based on this collapse, the remaining bitcoin chance above the threshold needed for the Q2’s strategy profits is about 91.3 %.

To verify the number of the number for the last circumstances, Walton has liquidated the same six -day windows starting with the launch of the Blackrock’s ISHARES Bitcoin Trust (IBIT), which sees it as a structural turning point in the market.

Since IBIT, Bitcoin avoided a 10 % or larger decrease in 96.6 % of all similar periods, indicating that in a more mature environment formed through institutions flows and ETF flows, sharp declines have become less frequent.

Time is also a factor. With the passage of every day, the end of the quarter is approaching, and the window of a significant decrease in the short term is narrowed.

According to Walton, even if Bitcoin will decrease to 104,000 dollars instead of $ 95,000, the desired percentage of the percentage required will decrease to 8.42 %. This will raise the risks modestly but still keeps it well inside the historically favorable lands.

If the Bitcoin remains linked to the range or climb more, the possibility of the strategy meets the S&P profit threshold continues to rise.

Other requirements for the inclusion of the index are already. The maximum strategy market now exceeds $ 21 billion, and the average daily trading volume is much higher than the minimum required for the S&P 500. This leaves net income as the only criterion that has not been solved.

With a few trading days remain in the quarter, the numbers appear to be clearly in favor of the strategy.

New rules changed the game, but the Q1 time was stopped

The strategy did not start towards the S&P 500 in the Q2. The company was already in the competition during the first quarter of 2025, as it fulfilled most structural requirements, including market value, liquidity and listing standards.

However, one case remained without a solution: net profitability over the twelve months. To meet this standard, the company needed strong Q1 profits enough to make up for previous losses and provide a positive cumulative personality across four quarters.

The turning point came with the adoption of an exposed accounting base issued by the Financial Accounting Standards Council.

Under the new standard, companies with digital assets must recognize them with a fair market value, allowing unreasonable gains to contribute directly to the net income reported. The previous method has only acquired disabilities, with the exception of any bullish trend of price increases.

For companies like a strategy, with large bitcoin holdings, heavily changed how to translate market performance into profits.

Despite the front of the base, timing remained embarrassing. Specify the Bitcoin closure price at the end of the quarter if the strategy can clarify the profitability tape.

Analyst Richard Haas estimated that the company requested $ 1.113 billion in net income in the first quarter to meet the S&P profit. This number was not investigated unless Bitcoin was closed above $ 96337 on March 31, based on the strategy at the time of 478,740 BTC.

However, Bitcoin closed the quarter at $ 82,548, and lower the mark. Consequently, the base of a fair value may improve the profits reported and leave the final price a large gap between the evaluation and the level needed to compensate the previous losses.

The strategy reported a net loss of $ 671 million in the fourth quarter of 2024, due primarily to the old accounting base that was characterized by Bitcoin to less than 16,000 dollars per currency, although it finished trading the year over $ 94,000.

This contradiction left the company with a deficit in profits sharp to the first quarter, and the new rule was not, although it is useful, sufficient to overcome it.

If Mstr joins, Bitcoin is quietly enters S&P

If the strategy enters S&P 500, MSTR will become a way to bring Bitcoin to the prevailing stocks without the need for any official encoding approval.

After that, the company will be evaluated not only as an alternative to bitcoin, but also as a company listed, it is expected to meet financial standards and wider governance.

About 15.6 trillion dollars of global assets is measured with S&P 500, with about $ 7.1 trillion in index boxes that are repeated. Once the strategy qualifies, these funds will be required to allocate a portion of its capital for MSTR shares.

This mechanism creates an indirect channel, but it is important through which traditional asset managers, many of whom reside from the bitcoin contract itself, are gaining exposure to prices through the ownership of stocks.

Even allocating 0.01 % across the assets associated with the S&P will translate into more than $ 1.5 billion in the new demand on MSTR shares.

The effect on bitcoin will be slower but meaningful. If Mstr becomes a basic contract through the main stock boxes, the Bitcoin consensus with traditional asset categories can enhance.

As of June 25, the strategy has approximately 2.8 % of the total bitcoin supply. Any increase in the MSTR demand led by the purchase of the index would enhance the role of bitcoin as a basic asset, not only responds to encryption cycles but also to wider movements in stock markets.

It would reshape how the strategy is displayed. Since its strategic axis in 2020, the company has been traded like ETF Bitcoin more than the old software company.

However, the S& P 500 inclusion will put the strategy in a group of peers specified through consistent revenue, profit payments, and the exposure of the sector.

This new site would raise expectations about financial reports, operational stability and corporate discipline. It will also bring more frequent index reviews and possible penalties, especially if the fluctuation remains high.

It is a useful comparison to enter Tesla’s S & P 500 in December 2020. The company attracted more than $ 80 billion of flows, as the negative and active managers amended their positions. Its association with the broader market has increased sharply in the months that followed.

Although the maximum strategy market is much smaller, the high trial to Bitcoin may make it a functional bridge between digital assets and old capital markets.

This bridge may prove more important as the edges of encryption are closer to organizational clarity and unified accounting therapy.

If the Mstr joins the index, then Bitcoin enters effectively with it. This changes those who carry exposure, how it is classified, and where it suits the larger financial system.