The analyst challenges the theory of Bitcoin for a period of four years star-news.press/wp

Bitcoin market cycles are not installed around their semi -events as it is widely specified, according to analyst James Chect, who says other factors pay bulls and bear.

“In my opinion, Bitcoin has seen three courses, not installed around Halvings,” He said On Wednesday, referring to Blockchain mining bonuses that usually occur every four years.

He said that market courses are installed on “trends in adoption and market structure”, as the market peak for the year 2017 and 2022 were the transfer points.

The most prominent verification of the previous three sessions as a “adoption cycle” from 2011 to 2018, is driven by the early adoption of retail, and the “teenage cycle” from 2018 to 2022, driven by “Boom West West with the leverage”, and the current “maturity cycle” from 2022, upward, driven by “institutional maturity and stability”.

He said: “Things have changed after the 2022 bear market, and people who assume that the past will repeat the sign because they look at the historical noise.”

The theory of the half cycle is still on the right track

Check analysis is inconsistent with the common theory that Bitcoin (BTC) markets usually extend for four years and install them around the events of half, which stimulates the shock of the supply due to the low mass bonus and increased demand.

That is when the year of the height of the bull market comes in the following year for the event of half, as happened in 2013, 2017, 2021, and it appears to be on the right track to repeat the pattern in 2025.

Check also said that Bitcoin is “literally the only final origin with gold”, which implicitly means that the current cycle may be extended.

The end of the four -year cycle?

There were a number of modern predictions that ended the traditional session for a period of four years, and this emerging market could extend to next year due to institutional participation.

Related to: Is the recovery cycle dead for a period of four years? Believers grow in a louder voice

Earlier this month, the chief investment employee of BitWise Matthew Hogan said about the course that “it has not ended until we see positive returns in 2026. But I think we will do, so let’s say this: I think the 4 -year cycle has ended.”

Businessman “techdev” He said His 546,000 followers on Tuesday, Tuesday, that “the dynamics of the work cycle is all necessary to understand bitcoin”, and clarify the peaks and pelvis from previous sessions.

The analysis indicates that the transformations from the decline to the upscale stages are driven by liquidity dynamics instead of the traditional half cycle for a period of four years, and the only difference this time is the extended upward stage.

Glassnode says the current session ends

Analysts at Glassnode said on August 20 that Bitcoin still follows traditional cycle patterns. On Tuesday, they are repeat The achievement of the last profit and the pressure of the high sale “indicates that the market entered a late stage of the session.”

Meanwhile, the position trader had more pragmatic Bob Lucas Take In market courses.

“I hear often,” there are no more bitcoin cycles. Reality, we are always in cycles. We cannot help ourselves. We pump until it explodes, because we just want more. Then we start again. The only difference is the amount of fragments you avoided and the extent of re -setting speed. “

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