July use a report that appears brutally. Trump shoots his head star-news.press/wp

The Jobs Job report was not frustrated. The story of this year turned against her.

The salary statements have grown Thanks to 73,000 jobsAccording to the data of the work statistics office, which was issued on Friday, is much lower than 110,000 expected. In addition to an insult to the injury, the May and June numbers were revised through 258,000 amazing jobs-the largest review for two months in five years-the work of the labor market momentum is weaker than it was throughout the year. This means that the growth of salary statements has reached an average of 35,000 jobs per month over the past three months, as soon as the reviews are calculated, the weakest extension from an early date of the Covid-19s. This indicates that any job growth in the previous two reports may have been no more than a mirage.

Meanwhile, the unemployment rate reached up to 4.2 % (the highest level since October 2021), and the total workforce decreased, indicating that unemployment rose even with fewer people looking for work – a rare red mark.

The labor market does not decrease from a cliff, but it is drifting to a dangerous area.

The shares fell sharply on Friday after the Jobs report and President Donald Trump’s announcement late Thursday by reviewing the definitions of dozens of countries to enter next week, threatening to increase global trade and increase the trigger prices for American consumers. “The economy flourishes under” Trump “, the president insisted on the social truth.

Trump was not lost at any time to blame the numbers of bad jobs, as he targeted a familiar enemy in the President of the Federal Reserve Powell before he resorted to a new goal: The president said on Friday afternoon he had had him Shooting Erika Mcentarfer, an unprecedented political intervention in traditional non -partisan assembly, and the Porters of economic data – and the danger that only risks evaporation markets. Without providing any evidence, Trump accused her of manipulating job data for political purposes and claimed that the job report was “fake”.

There is no evidence of political intervention in job data, and BLS, which is the gold standard for employment data, has been used for a long time to review data with more accurate information.

Analysts called on the president’s unimportant claims. Stephen Blitz, chief American economist in Lombard, He told the Financial Times“The launch of the BLS head with the aim of making economic statistics bend the will of the president is not something that surrounds an economy in the first world.” Other analysts noted that Trump’s attacks risked undermining the confidence of the public in one of the most respectable statistical agencies of the government.

The markets have regained some previous losses, but they remained sharply for this day. Dow Jones decreased more than 550 points, or about 1.2 %, shortly before the market closed. The S&P 500 Off was 1.6 %, which is less than 20 days moving average. The heavy technical nasdaq decreased by 2.2 %.

Jeffrez analysts said in a report early on Friday that there are “recovery qualities” in job data. “It is certain that the President Powell wishes to have these numbers 48 hours ago,” the analysts said, referring to the central bank’s decision, in reference to the Central Bank’s decision earlier this week to maintain fixed interest rates. “A more severe view on the health market health would have made a more easy message to achieve it with confidence.”

Ali Jafri at Cibc Capital Markets had a first reaction, according to Bloomberg: “OUCH”.

Before the report, traders were presenting the federal reserve only about the possibilities of coins in the September step. Now their bets are completely adopting the axis. Jefferies believes that the Federal Reserve remains on the right way to cut September, followed by two others in November and December.

The Treasury Return has decreased for two years 22 basis points to about 3.74 %, reflecting the fierce Bond market reaction to weak job data. The markets did not stop there: Futures for interest rates showed an 88 % chance to reduce the Federal Reserve in September, an increase of about 40 % in the previous day, and the bites were pricing at about 18 basis points to mitigate by September.

Chris Zakarili, chief investment employee in North Light Assets, said that the first step in the market was expected: the rates decreased and the stock futures decreased. The address number is usually ignored in favor of the Mediterranean for a period of three months-but with a declining review of 258,000 in May and June. He said that the stocks “will likely move through this particular report” and continue to climb later this month, but between the new customs tariffs and new evidence that the labor market follows, “today it can be an ugly day” in Wall Street.

While traders tend to a lower price, the Federal Reserve has not yet committed. Powell, speaking earlier this week, said that the labor market still seems “strong” and reiterated that officials will remain on the basis of data. Powell may still describe the labor market as “in a balance”, but market dynamics show different drama. Two conservatives in the Federal Reserve in favor of price cuts at the July meeting – first of this in more than 30 years. Powell stressed that the unemployment rate is a Lodestar scale for it, and as it rises despite the shrinkage of the workforce, the patience of the policy may wear thin.

“Just two days after the conclusion of the federal reserve meeting for this month, suddenly the double mandate on the table,” Zakarili wrote. “With salaries this morning – and the falling reviews that came with it – the Federal Reserve will again need a budget of a slowdown market with inflation that is not slowing enough quickly.”

Charlie Ribli, the largest investment strategy in Allianz, has managed investments, a similar note: “In general, the conditions of the data market today continue to calm down. Although the most soft conditions do not guarantee a warning signal to investors, they should put the market participants – including the Federal Reserve – notice that economic conditions are turning.”

Soft employment, solid exit

Despite the main headlines, wage growth was not terrible-a loss of 0.3 %, in line with expectations, thus increasing an annual basis to 3.9 %. This still exceeds inflation, giving workers some breathing space, but salaries alone will not compensate for the wider softening. This silver lining is almost invisible next to the structural weakness.

One of the most related signs about what is happening, but whoever leaves. July witnessed the second consecutive month of workforce shrinkage. Participation decreased again (to 62.2 %), and the number of people who are not in the workforce but still want a job that has jumped more than half a million last year. The home survey told the story of a missile: The employment decreased by 260,000, while the unemployment increased by 221,000. The workforce has decreased by 38,000, which led to participation to its lowest level since November 2022.

In other words, people are not only struggling for employment, they surrender. The unemployment rate rose even with more workers from the labor market confirms the slowdown. It was not the mere survey of the institution that sparked the eyebrows: the family survey, a wider view of employment, was not a clear loss of jobs for this month.

The jobs that appeared in July were almost completely from health care and social assistance. Together, these sectors added 73,000 jobs. Finance 15000 added, while retail and storage trading contributed 19,000. Most other sectors – construction, manufacturing, retail, transport – were flat or steam losing. He threw the manufacture of 11,000 jobs, professional services and businesses decreased by 14,000. Federal government salaries fell 12,000, and they continued in a direction for months as agencies tighten belts amid budget pressure. The entertainment and hospitality, which was once a postpartum growth engine, added only 5,000 jobs.

The broader context raises the alarm. The demand for employment is the disposal of strength: Jolts data shows that job opportunities decreased by 275,000 in June, indicating a decline in employment through major industries such as restaurants and hospitality. Meanwhile, the workforce born abroad decreased by more than 500,000 last month, and has decreased by 1.7 million since March-which indicates that the most strict immigration policy may increase employment. This may increase the short -term wages, but it makes it difficult for companies to meet the demand.

Fresh TRIFF Action entered into force on Friday, as it was a date for Trump on August 1 to the countries either to give commercial agreements or face new, high -end duties. The President announced the definitions of nearly 70 countries. Canadian goods are exposed immediately, as fees jump from 25 % to 35 %, while the broader punitive tariff – up to 50 % for Brazil, 25 % for India, and 20 % of Taiwan – is scheduled to kick on August 7. The full step has prompted the global markets to the decline and agreement of the depression surrounding the weak functions of additional functions to the urgency that raises the concerns that revolve around them.

This rapprochement in the most entertaining employment, the high allegations of unemployed, and the uncertainty creates two real ways to study the Federal Reserve. The first: a dark market where the weak labor market pushes officials to provide relief through price discounts. The second: a more benign path where the activity maintains, and inflation gradually cools, and the Federal Reserve is dominated. The July report has not announced any way we are going, but it is definitely inclined to expectations towards the first.