Job cutting and lowered GDP forecast is a recipe for stagflation star-news.press/wp

Kevin Mahn, President and Management of Hennion and Walsh, spoke with NYSE (Ice) TV for a special video interview.

See the interview above and check the transcript below, which is slightly edited for length and clarity.

Kriss Schools: Joining now in the studio is Kevin Mahn, president and the main investment officer in Hennion and the Walsh’s asset management. Kevin, always good to have you, and especially here as we start these second quarters together.

Kevin Mahn: Yes, happy fool’s day.

HP: Happy April fool and day. I know you always come with the facts. So give us facts here as we start in the second quarter. Kevin, where are we standing in markets?

Km: Yes. I think a lot of investors will be happy that the march is now and the first quarter, as the worst march and its worst first quarter of 2022. Years., Kristen, in the second quarter, in another second second second year.

First of all, the tariffs. We will have security, at least around what tariffs will be so we can plan and adapt our portfolios accordingly. Maybe not reciprocal tariffs will not be like reciprocal as we previously thought it would be a tail for the market. If the Federal Reserves, interest rates slaughtered for the first time during the second quarter for 25 base points, that would be a tail for the market. If the tax reduction is extended during the second quarter, it would be a tail for the market.

And of course, more and more announcements we hear about increasing the consumption and increasing defense in consumption and infrastructure are a tail wind for the market. So I know that this volatility is hard to deal with, but try not to be time on the market. Stay invested true to your tolerance at risk. Adjust your portfolios accordingly and make sure the markets will return. And when they do, they are prone to bounce as strong as they move downwards.

HP: So, in this Kevin environment, it certainly sounds like a shopping and asks you maybe what you recommend to your customers. But for spectators looking and watch the volatility we have seen, at least to start the year, is there a kind of redistribution you could suggest in the middle of the rotation of the sector?

Km: Of course. I would say to stick and adjust, because numerous studies show that the market time is exercising in futility. But if you could look at these areas of the market currently benefitting, the value significantly surpasses growth. International surpasses American defense stocks, industry, utilities. How about utility supplies? They pay a good dividend. They are well kept in the face of volatility, and they are the background in and revolution. It is the sector you could look at. And of course, bonds. Bonds can provide you with this principle protection when you keep them to maturity and good permanent flow flow. And they are also beautiful, volatility-wise, and strong.

HP: I want to talk about the Fed and the way forward for interest rates because we heard from Hed Chair Jerome Powell to see more insecurity and, you alluded to that, the market does not like uncertainty. He wants clarity. But the Fed kept Pat about his interest rate standing, seeing two reductions this year. For the past weeks, several guests came to the show and actually think that this year it could increase due to inflation. Give us a better sense that makes your specific rates outlets.

Km: The only thing is for sure is that there is more insecurity, but the Chairman Powell reiterated from being prepared in a step if the economy is getting worse on or on the labor market worsen. They still have a forecast for reducing two speeds for this year. However, they also increased their appearance for inflation, increased unemployment prospects, and they reduced the forecast for GDP. Put all together, it is a recipe for potential stagflation. But I think that the FED continues to cut the rates of this year at a gradual pace because they are more concerned about the economic slowdown potentially becoming a recession than the inflation remaining above their goals 2%.

HP: We heard that the Fed Share reused the word “pass”.

Km: Again, he’s back! Back is! Perhaps these inflationary pressures are truly related to the tariffs, but tomorrow we will learn more about these tariffs.

HP: Now, of course, the job report needs on Friday. We saw a wave of release, at least focusing on the Federal Government with Doge, tens of thousands of them, if not more, at the moment. What does that mean for a job report?

Km: Well, Fed asked its forecast this year to finish the year to about 4.4%, and they think they will be lower next year to about 4.3%. Now, from the historic point of view, it’s not very high, but where we are currently, it means hundreds of thousands of other Americans will be out of work. It is concerned because Americans do not have a tendency to spend as many Americans who work, and 70% of our economic growth comes from consumer spending, so it is something to open attention.

HP: The next week the earnings season will start to start. Delta (Dal) Among the first companies to report should be given good to hear us in terms of health consumers when it comes to a discretion. Do you have expectations there?

Km: As he stands right now, if you look at FactSetSet (FDS)They anticipate 7% salgration of salaries in a year. This would mark the seventh consecutive quarter of salarity of earnings in a year. I think it will lower it a little, but if we can continue to have companies that grow earnings in the middle of this feedback on the stock market, which creates some pretty attractive entrance points. The Mag Seven is currently trading at 25 times current earnings. It is the lowest past since the end of 2022. years. There are opportunities to invest in consideration as a result of the moves we have seen.

HP: I also want to ask about international stocks because we knew, or at least he broadcast, when President Donald Trump took the Office for the Second Expression: American Exceptional. In a way, it is a kind of replaced maga, obviously. It’s always, you know, hosted in the magazine base. This helps him to choose. But American extremely extremely, as we see international stock surpasses. How should the viewer look? Should you stay true to American exceptionality, if that is the ideology they adopted? Or should they be open to international investments?

Km: I think what we have seen so far in 2025. The reminder is investors about the potential benefits of diversification of your portfolio geographically. International developed markets have significantly surpassed the rest of the world. Even the emerging markets have so far surpassed us, but we are still too heavy, a lot of this transitional period creates this uncertainty, creating this volatility, but in the end, I think now goes stronger as a result. So that doesn’t necessarily mean to give up on us supplies because international surpasses, but you should consider adding them to a geographically balanced portfolio.

HP: Bitcoin. We will end up with Bitcoin with the question, Kevin. What are your thoughts?

KM: Yes, my thoughts are, I still don’t understand. I don’t understand why he moves more or lower on a given day. I understand that Trump’s administration is behind cryptorurating and behind Bitcoins. But I think that there are better opportunities on the market based on a custom risk of bitcoin. But I still like the basic technology that was built, which is blockchain.