4 -year dead session: Matt Hogan breaks the era of the new encryption star-news.press/wp

This year, the encryption market entered an unknown area. The new structural dynamics reinforces how investors view the space, questioning the long faith of the classic cycle for a period of four years. Historically, the Bitcoin events followed half and the mutation patterns in the market a predictable rhythm-but 2025 broke this template.

Matt Hogan, chief investment official at Bitwise Asset Management, believes that the industry has entered a new era. In a recent analysis, he argued that the traditional period for a period of four years is no longer a reliable framework for understanding the coding market behavior. According to Hougan, the main drivers behind this transformation are the weakening of the forces that created previous sessions-such as the decreasing effect of extinction and the risk of bombing-and the second, the emergence of larger and long-term trends that are not in line with the old style.

From the emergence of investment funds circulating in encryption to an increase in institutional adoption and organizational progress, Hougan sees multiple years of forces that begin to control the direction of the market. With the start of Wall Street Capital to flow to digital assets, regulatory clarity grows with legislation such as a genius law, investors may need to be calibrated their expectations.

Long -term forces to reshape the encryption market structure

According to For Hougan, every half becomes “half an important” every four years, which reduces its impact on the momentum of the market. Unlike 2018 and 2022, when the interest rate environment added pressure to the origins of the risk, the cash background today is more suitable for encryption.

In addition, the risk of bombing from unorganized players fades with the improvement of organization and institutional progress. Hogan notes that the rise of the best organized entities and transparency has settled in the market and removed some periodic fragility.

It is too points To the most important emerging risks: the increasing effect of treasury companies that carry and transmit large amounts of encryption. Their capabilities to influence the market in the short term are great and deserves to be monitored.

At the same time, the big powers are now in implementation. The transformation of the capital to the investment funds circulating in the encryption of the beginning of the direction of 5-10 years that started in 2024. Institutional adoption has just began, with the start of pensions and the standing of the asset category. The organizational momentum began in January 2025, and Wall Street Capital began to flow only after the genius law passed this month.

Hagan said: “These long -standing forces in the long term will overwhelm the forces of the” classic “four -cycle. He believes that the year 2026 will be a strong year-not because of an increase in noise, but because of what he calls a “steady sustainable mutation” instead of a super cycle. While recognition that volatility will continue, Hogan emphasizes that the maturity of Crypto is real and accelerated. Investors may need to re -calibrate their strategies for this new era.

The Long -Crypto MARKTO CAP is revealing a clear long -term upward trend, currently sits about $ 3.82 trillion. After a long unification phase that started in mid -2012, the market rose steadily and is now close to its high range at all near the brand of $ 3.9 trillion and 4 trillion dollars. This level was a large resistance area during the previous session and remains a major psychological barrier.

From a technical perspective, the simple moving average lasts for 50 months (SMA) continues at the tendency to the top and is currently sitting at $ 1.88 trillion, much lower than the current market value, which reflects strong support for the macro. In addition, the volume has increased dramatically in recent months – especially during the last two green candle – which renews the confidence of the renewed investor and institutions’ flows, in line with the account of the increasing ETF adoption and broader organizational clarity.

The market structure also shows the lowest higher levels and higher levels in the monthly timetable, indicating that the upward trend remains intact. As long as the maximum Crypto market continues to get more than $ 3.2 trillion and makes another month exceeding 3.8 trillion dollars, the possibility of an outbreak of an unknown area increases significantly.

Distinctive image from Dall-E, the tradingView graph

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