Everyone seemed this week with the meeting with Mark Carney with Donald Trump at the Washington office. It may be gratifying, but in the meantime, the Canadian economy has already been weakened with the prices that the President launched since the President returned home.
The latest economic indicators confirm this: Unemployment increases, reducing trust and is delayed by trade with the United States.
First, the unemployment rate rose by two tenths in April to the country to reach 6.9%. Since 2016 has not exceeded 7% mark, removed from the pandemic. In Quebec, the increase in the unemployment rate is three tenths, 6%, from 2021 to 6% of July.
When we take a look at the employment sectors, we see that our southern neighbors are launching the trade war.
In April, Canada lost 7,500 jobs in natural resources, 26,800 jobs in trade and 30,600 jobs manufacturing. These concurters clearly show that there is no confidence that investment and construction slowes down and several companies have been placed after increasing stocks at the beginning of the year.
If Canada was able to add jobs in April, it’s because the federal election has been there! Adding 37,000 positions are explains in public administration. They are ephimeral jobs, which are no longer. Without winning work, the April evaluation would be negative.
In fact, the unemployment rate is increasing and the employment rate in a row in a row. He quickly caused Canada’s trade war. The private sector has lost 75,000 jobs in the last two months. You must return to the past crises – Pandemic, financial crisis – to go to a recovery marked in the private sector. Less than 42,000 jobs have been lost for two months between 25-54 years of age.
On the Ontario, the unemployment rate approaches the bar of 8%. He lost 35,000 jobs in April in March following almost 30,000 jobs. The Windsor region is particularly damaged because the manufacturing and automotive sector prevails, as they have great difficulty due to prices and uncertainty.
The Canadian economy has shaken the uncertainty in prices, paralysis, investment and impact on the impact of risks due to the effects of consumption consumption
Type Matthieu Arseneau economists and Kyle Dahms in a national bank note.
The long-term unemployment has increased significantly, the proportion of people seeking work, significantly increased in 27 weeks compared to last year, especially among young people (15-24 years)
Write Economists Laura Gu and Lj Valencia, desjardins.
Exports to fall into the United States
Customs prices fell fast trade between Canada and the United States. According to the latest available data, exports to the United States of Canada fell by 6.6% of March compared to February in a total of 52.1 billion dollars. And imports fell by 2.9% 43.6 trillion.
Meanwhile, the rest of the world jumped 24.8% to configure $ 1,8 billion, and imports rose by 1% and up to 26.8 trillion. The impact of trade war is very clear in trade. And it happens quickly, it seems amazing. Businesses are already looking for new export pathways, and it seems to work.
The Canadian economy also hurts is the fall of oil prices. With the deviation policies of the American Administration, global growth is revised downwards and also energy demand. The price of oil fell by about 25% from the year.
Companies delay and delay investment projects and will be difficult to operate Trump President’s policy ” Drill, baby, drill If the price of oil is not large enough. It is significant to take risk to develop energy projects and decisions of the President Trump are fully counterproduced in the economic level.
It will also be complex for the political decision to establish the idea of an energy corridor if the market is not attractive to the private sector. The importance of condemning similar projects similar to energy is not much if they are not economic elements.
Prime Minister Doug Ford, Tim Houston and Susan Hutch supporters of the resurrection of the Western OleOduc project, open new Brunswick, opening new Canadian oil markets. However, uncertainty has a state of economy, global demand and environmental requirements, especially.
To other rates?
According to the national bank and desjardins, the Canadian Bank can lower its rate next month. Inflation continues to be controlled, especially when the intersection of carbon taxes in the nine provinces drops the price of gasoline. Economic growth slows down and a recession is not excluded.
The key rate will now be 2.75%, 2% at the end of the year, depending on the national bank. Economists in this organization anticipates economic growth from 1.5% to 1% to 1% to 1%, and then only 1% in 2026.
In Quebec, 1% of the 1% year of expectations, 0.8% next year, Projections that will complicate life from Government in the fall of 2026, in fact, the standard and poor agencies will be discounted.
So Mark Carney Prime Minister will present the composition of its ministers next Tuesday. It is expected that François-Philippe Champagne will keep his message as a financial minister. He will then prepare a quote, which will be presented in early June.
The government must be controlled to implement its campaign commitments in a high uncertainty context. The Prime Minister has promised the decline in mass taxes and investments to try to improve the basics of the Canadian economy. Certainly, the deficit will certainly be at the cost of the most important.
2025-05-10 08:00:00
