Bitcoin Bull Run may be reinstated due to a reduced federal reserve price star-news.press/wp

Main meals:

• The Federal Reserve may reduce prices early if global trade, energy supplies or American relationship with the Middle East are deteriorating.

• The weak dollar can follow the acceleration of the bitcoin price.

The Federal Reserve of the United States (FED) retained fixed interest rates by 4.25 % on Wednesday, a decision that investors were widespread. The next monetary policy meeting is scheduled for July 30, but the Federal Reserve can behave early in the event of a major disorder.

On Friday, Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller said, “Policy makers should look forward to the low interest rates in the early month,” said Federal Reserve Governor Christopher Waller. during interview With CNBC, Waller explained that the Federal Reserve should start slowly reduce rates because “inflation does not pose a major economic threat.”

Although the possibility of such a step is still very low, it is worth studying the potential impact on Bitcoin (BTC) and what factors may force the central bank to stay away from its current cautious position.

The American war in tensions in the Middle East and trade risk may force price discounts

Rare emergency interest rate discounts, usually a credit shock, geopolitical escalation, or sudden collapse in financial stability. The last of this reduction came in March 2020, when the Federal Reserve rates reduced the rates of 100 basis points in response to the global spread of Covid-19.

The feelings of investors decreased during early panic, and even gold fell to the lowest level in seven months. However, the long -term effect prefers the origins of risk. S&P 500 has regained its losses by late May 2020, while Bitcoin regained $ 8,800 by late April 2020. In essence, panic decreased in less than three months.

Although the major companies are adopting as a reserve of the Treasury, Bitcoin is still strongly linked to technology shares. Between March and May 2025, its link remained 30 days with NASDAQ 100 higher than 70 %. Investors continue to see Bitcoin as a high beta play on future economic growth.

The growing tensions in the Middle East have been greatly at great risk. The Strait of Hormuz takes nearly 20 % of oil and gas supplies all over the world. Any disorder there increases the costs of energy and uncertainty. Since companies reduce operations under these circumstances, inflation expectations are cold and slow to employ, which creates space for cash dilution.

Trade remains another source of fragility. If the truce of the temporary tariff between the United States and China collapses, or if the main partners such as Canada or negotiations in the European Union are abandoned, American exports may suffer. To confront weak demand and protect the local industry, the Federal Reserve of the United States may resort to discounts that support the expansion of credit and investment.

Related to: Here’s what Bitcoin did, while the United States added to its debt of $ 37

The weakness of the dollar enhances Bitcoin’s call

High interest rates do not increase the federal debt, but it holds the costs of re -financing. The Treasury’s return has increased for 20 years to 4.9 % from 4.6 % over the past three months, a sign that investors still complain about inflation. The market demands the highest installment, indicating uncertainty about the Federal Reserve position.

Meanwhile, the US dollar index (DXY) fell to 99 out of 104 in March, where it approached its lowest level in three years. If the markets read a sudden reduction as a recession signal, the US dollar may weaken more. In this scenario, the demand for inflationary assets such as Bitcoin may rise sharply, leading to the outbreak of more than $ 120,000 is not possible, but increasingly logical.

This article is intended for general information purposes and does not aim to be and should not be considered legal or investment advice. The opinions, ideas and opinions expressed here are alone and do not necessarily reflect or represent the views and opinions of Cointelegraph.