The United States added 22,000 jobs in August, and slowed down in the months star-news.press/wp

The August job report did not need fireworks. It was only necessary to show the cooling of the labor market without breaking, a type of Goldilocks that could have a gesture in the Federal Reserve during the classification of September prices. Instead, it was stated in an apartment: non -agricultural salaries have risen by only 22,000, i.e. monthly profit since April, and greatly shortened the expectations of economists by about 75,000 new jobs, making August absent. The unemployment rate increased to 4.3 %, which is the highest level in four years, wages increased by 0.3 % per month (3.7 % on an annual basis), and the slow annual growth of wages since July 2024. A market was supposed to cool without breaking now on the speed of stalling-appointment, steady stability, and the extension devices are still.

This is not a collapse – but it is not a big story either.

“This is what a soft landing,” said Jeffrey Roche, chief economist at LPL Financial, said. “Under the cover, it seems to be a lot in the wrong direction.”

The printed markets are largely read as permission to mitigate. Within minutes of the release, the S& P 500 and NASDAQ index rose to the registration of the highest investors as investors saw a renewed justification for reducing interest rates in September. Meanwhile, treasury revenue decreased sharply-two years decreased by 3.5 to 3.6 %, which is the lowest level in the years-dollar and weakness against other currencies.

However, the details of the report narrated a thin story. Health care again pregnant pregnancy, adding 31,000 jobs. Social aid contributed 16,000. But almost everything decreased. Manufacturing as a whole has lost 12,000 jobs – including 15,000 decreases in strikes related to strikes. Both wholesale and the federal government have abandoned 12,000 to 15,000 jobs, which extends to a decrease of approximately 100,000 jobs since January, and deepened in October with the outbreak of more workers. Mining decreased somewhat, and temporary assistance – Canary in the coal mine for weak employment – decreased by 10,000. Restaurants and bars added 11000, and hotels barely 2000 – barely a boom.

Migice health care and social assistance, and the labor market is sweeping at best. These two sectors out of 18 years have shown gains. Special salaries rose only 38,000, while government workers decreased 16,000, as federal agencies are almost all this decrease. The spread index – a measure of the number of industries it acquires against the loss – decreased to 49.6, indicating that job losses were common as gains.

The labor market works on fumes

Bill Adams, chief economist of Komerica Bank, said that the August figures showed weakness “through all of the industries producing goods and providing services”, which enhances expectations for the reduction of September, but also realizes that the economy “runs with low levels” so that politics does not act to a more supportive amount in the field of technology. Headcount, dynamic similar to a productivity mutation in the 1990s.

Together, their reading suggests cooling the labor market in the short term and reshape it in the long term.

That image was only sharpened by reviews. In June, a net loss of 13,000 jobs-the first negative month since December 2020-ended the expansion for 52 months. With the ups in July to 79,000, reviews for two months still leave the salaries less than 21,000 of the amount for the first time. On average for three months, job growth works in less than 30,000-speed stalling in each name. Employers do not rush to reduce employees, but they lost their appetite clearly.

ED Maguire in Freedom Capital Markets said this report showed “additional softening”, but he said that the mixture still leaves the “net network” economy in “Goldelux Lands”-a scenario where job growth slows only to reduce wage pressure without moving to workers’ layoffs-“with sufficient force to impeding lukewarm job data.

The home survey was shown on its divided screen. More Americans have reported that they are working, and the participation of the main age is 83.7 %. But the share of consumers who tell the conference council that the jobs are “abundant” in exchange for it that are difficult to obtain “have declined to their lowest levels since early 2021. Small business owners, which were once desirable to fill the openings, now say they are easy to use and less to increase wages. Continuous unemployment claims have continued since April.

Incorrect position was placed at work, with the U-6 to 8.1 %-a reminder that the recession works deeper than it suggests the title of 4.3 %. Unemployment in the long run infiltrated to 1.9 million, now more than a quarter of the unemployed. Part -time operating number for economic reasons held at 4.7 million, while 6.4 million people said outside the workforce they still want a job.

The “lack of fire, no fire” – created a slow work without the demobilization of collective workers – preventing the land from falling, but it also did not inspire confidence. This is a luggage market that is still working slowly, and on a fewer people. The average weekly watches remained stuck at 34.2, while production workers and non -kidnapped workers rose 0.4 % to $ 31.46 – a sign that wage pressure is fixed but cooling.

The report did not fall into isolation. Initial claims rose up for several months, and job openings returned to their lowest level within about a year, both of which showed manufacturing and ISM polls in August. Job printing also chanted private sector tracking devices: ADP reported only 54,000 new jobs in August, with a period of three months of 46,000. Completely, the economy filled a Macro image that enhances the sense of raising the labor market, not just fluctuation for a month.

Just twice enough to study the Federal Reserve

These lines of stagnation are just as the Federal Reserve prepares to meet in September. Powell in Jackson Hall indicated that the central bank is ready to reduce prices in September if inflation continues to cool down and that the labor market continues to soften.

The head of the central bank has already framing the labor market as a “strange balance” – the cooling request while the available supply is also shrinking, partly due to Trump’s immigration restrictions. After August, things seem more balanced: a weak labor market enough to justify the mitigation, but it is not cracking enough to panic. Merchants came to Friday, a discount pricing in September; This report closed this-and others are now betting on successive discounts in September and October.

“50 Basis Point has now been run,” said Jimmy Cox, the Harris Financial Group’s administrative partner. “The free success of the federal reserve in the labor market has ended,” with the recruitment data this week, “The Federal Reserve over all the reasons it needs to change the balance of risk and low rates in two weeks.”

Then there is a policy. The weak July report has not ended, with its 258,000 reviews to the previous months, with a discussion about seasonal factors, but with Erika Minarker, President Trump Trump, accused of “forged” statistics. On Friday, Trade Minister Howard Lootnick doubled, saying that the numbers are “determined against Donald Trump” and promised that the agency would be “alongside.” Trump’s candidate has not been confirmed to replace it, E Jake Anthony, an economist at the Heritage Corporation, who fully presented the monthly report in favor of a quarterly version. But credibility does not wait for the Senate vote – and once, it is difficult to fix it.

Which leaves the August Jobs report, which plays a single role: a technical indication that employment slows down to the edge of the recession, and a political Litmus test if it is still possible to trust official data. On the economy, the message is simple: the labor market is cooling.