The United States is on the “brink of recession”, warning the leading economists star-news.press/wp

A prominent economist believes that recent reports on the health of the American economy indicate an imminent decrease.

“The economy is on the edge of the recession. This is the clear ready -made meals from emptying economic data last week,” published the chief economist in Moody Mark Zandy on X on Sunday. “Consumer spending has been contracted with construction and manufacturing, and employment is scheduled to decrease.”

Why do it matter

Zandy has looked many similar warnings about the state of the American economy in recent months and the risk of recession, which he greatly attributed to the trade policies of the administration and considered it an exacerbation of more than the long -term weakness.

What do you know

Last week, a segment of the main economic data published by many government agencies.

The trade deficit of America narrowed in June, the consumer morale measures improved modestly after months of declines, and the growth of GDP was shivered sharply in the second quarter of worrying shrinkage in the first, according to advanced estimates by the Ministry of Commerce.

However, as Zandy noted, other indicators were less encouraged. Manufacturing activity slowed in July, and job opportunities decreased in June by more than 275,000 expected and consumer spending, despite growth, are still behind strong growth in 2024.

Many of these data were dismantled through the recruitment report on Friday from the Bls Statistics Office (BLS). This revealed that the American economy added 73,000 jobs in July, less than expectations. In addition, the Mayo and June numbers reviews showed that during these months employment was less than 258,000 than before.

The fundamental review prompted President Donald Trump to say that the numbers “were forged in order to make the Republicans, and I look bad”, and the BLS Commissioner Erika Minarker was immediately released.

The White House defended the dismissal of Mcentafer by referring to the perceived deviations in both of these recruitment reports and previous employment during their leadership, taking into account these great reviews of “difficult evidence” to manipulate data with political motivations.

However, this step was subjected to severe criticism by Democratic lawmakers and some Republicans, with a great warning that this represents a dangerous precedent for political intervention in statistical reports and will erode confidence in the future work of the office.

“Any idea that economic data is offended the fact that the economy is the road,” Zandy wrote on Sunday. “Data always suffers from great reviews when the economy is at a turning point, such as stagnation. Therefore, it is not surprising at all that we are witnessing great declining reviews of salary employment numbers.”

He added that the discounts in the federal workforce by the Ministry of Governmental efficiency (DOGE) were a “main factor” in BLS reviews, given that government departments are often delayed in reporting salaries to the office.

What people say

Senior economists in Moody Mark Zandy, via x: “It is not ambiguous that the economy is fighting; blame for increasing customs tariffs and a very restricted immigration policy. The definitions are increasingly related to American companies’ profits and the purchasing power of American families. It means fewer migrant workers a smaller economy.”

Economist Jared Bernstein He wrote on Monday.

He added that the descending review “does not necessarily mean” that the United States is heading to recession, but this weak consumer spending and demand for investors will continue to increase economic growth and the health of the labor market.

White House press secretary Caroline Levitt He said After reading GDP last week: “Today, GDP growth came in market expectations, and yesterday, Consumer confidence rose. The Americans in America’s economic agenda Trump Trump trusted Trump, who still proves the mistake of experts.

What happens after that?

Zandy also noted in his post, the flexible labor market conditions were one of the main factors that suffer from a federal reserve waiting approach, and stopped cuts in prices while working to obtain a clearer understanding of inflationary pressures.

However, as inflation continues over its 2 percent goal, he said, “It is difficult for the Federal Reserve to save.”

On Friday, the chief economist in Goldman Sachs Jean Hatzius said that the disturbing reviews of the recent job data made it “very likely” that the central bank would reduce prices at its meeting in September.