While the deadline for the Trump tariff is waving, economists see calm before the storm Trade war star-news.press/wp

When US President Donald Trump revealed his sharp “mutual” definitions of dozens of countries in April, economists issued warnings of catastrophic economic harm.

So far, their fears have not been fulfilled.

The US economy challenged – the largest unilateral engine for global growth – expectations through many standards, with inflation remaining low, employment employers, and the stock market reaches record levels.

However, even if the limited repercussions of Trump’s tariff took some analysts by surprise, economists have warned that American economies and global economies may suffer from calm before the storm.

Dozens of American trading partners, including close allies such as South Korea and Japan, face a tariff from 25 percent to 40 percent unless commercial deals with the Trump administration are closed by a final date on August 1.

“When you start seeing the definitions in 20 or more, you reach a point where companies may stop importing completely,” Joseph Foudi, a professor of economics at the University of New York University, told Al -Jazeera.

“Companies simply postpone the main decisions, delay employment, and low economic activity,” Foudi added.

“Understanding about trade in this sense is costly like actual tariff rates.”

Even countries that are able to take out a time in a timely manner that they are likely to face much higher duties.

Trump’s initial agreements with Vietnam and China were announced, in May and early July, respectively, to the minimum level of customs tariffs of 20 percent and 30 percent.

On Friday, the Financial Times reported that Trump was pressing a tariff ranging between 15 and 20 percent of the European Union, the largest commercial partner in the United States and faces a 30 percent duty as of August 1, in any deal reached with the mass.

Ursula von der Lynn, the European Commission President, warned that the Trump tariff of 30 percent “will disrupt the via Atlantic supply chains, at the expense of companies, consumers and patients on both sides of the Atlantic Ocean.”

“Growth damage”

Stephen Dorlov, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, said even if he is much less than his threat, “said Stephen Dorlov, a professor of economics at the University of Chicago, even if he is much less than his threat,”

Economists are widely agreed that the impact of the definitions that have been implemented has not been fully felt, as many companies have built their stocks of stocks to alleviate the high costs.

Under the current measures – including the foundation line by approximately 10 percent on all countries, and the rise in car and steel fees – the average actual US tariff rate currently is 16.6 percent, with the rate increased by 20.6 percent as of August 1, according to the budget laboratory at the Yale Ministry of Economy.

Even if Trump is not sharply raised on August 1, economists expect inflation to rise at least somewhat in the coming months, as prices rise in turn in growth.

In the analysis of published last month, BBVA Research estimated that even the current level of American definitions could reduce Global GDP (GDP) by 0.5 Celsius in the short term, and by more than 2 percentage points in the medium term.

“It is too early to expect significant impacts on prices in the United States, where there was a significant increase in exports to the United States in anticipation of high definitions, and companies are waiting to see where things will end in terms of tariffs that affect them. Therefore, it is not surprising, we have seen limited effects so far,

“But if the United States does what it indicated, it wants to do it-raising the average definitions to the level of 20-30 percent-there will be a much greater effect.”

Trump and his allies have repeatedly rejected economists’ warnings about his definitions, pointing to the continuous flow of positive data to make the economic consensus defective.

Trump wrote about the social truth in response to a recent report by the Economic House of Economists (CEA), which found that the prices of imported goods decreased by 0.1 percent from December to May: “The fake news and the so -called” experts “were wrong.”

“The definitions make our country” a boom. “

The CEA report raised criticism from some economic analysts, as the National Tax Union said it failed to take into account the storage by importers and covered a period “was very short to extract any final conclusions.”

Despite the strong major numbers about the American economy, economists also referred to the data warning.

Noting last week, economists at Wales Vargo Tim Quinlan and Shannon Green indicated that the estimated spending on services in the United States decreased by 0.3 percent a year to May, indicating the withdrawal of possible economic storms.

“It is recognized that this is a modest decrease, but what makes it frightening is that within 60 years, this procedure only decreased during the recession or immediately after that.”

Dorlov, a professor of the University of Chicago, said that the Trump administration had no reason to see the relative health of the economy so far as a justification for its economic plans.

Dorlov said: “First, there is a widespread belief that the threats of customs tariffs will not be achieved in actual agreements.

“There is no feeling that the absence of significant effects on real activity and inflation, so far, in any way proves the Trump administration claims.”