EValve in less stressful times, Britain always pays too much attention to the US and too little to Germany. In today’s violence circumstances, that imbalance may be forgiven. After all, Donald Trump, now turns out, really means it. It is more interested in robbery and profit from places such as Gaza, Ukraine and Greenland than in adherence to only peace or good order.
Even so, negligence to Germany needs to end. British politicians, like German politicians, transmit their worldviews in the middle of a political gallery. But Germany, although it is no longer great power, is still a great nation. Indeed, it may now be more than ever an essential European nation, after it seemed public recording throughout the Atlantic Alliance of Trump, it seems to leave Europe in Europe on their devices.
German general elections, this arrival on Sunday, happens with the consequences. Primarily, these consequences will feel in him, with his extended economic stagnation, her traditional fears of borrowing, her nervousness of military obligations, and her sudden concerns that the US are ready to allow Russia to threaten countries to by his eastern border.
Germany is inherent in importance, however, means that the elections will help determine whether Europe – not only the EU – can be handled with Trump’s second mandate. Will Europe be able to submit defense and security for protection not only Ukraine, intimidating enough tasks, but also the Baltic Republic, Poland and other former Soviet satellite states? Can reform their failure economic model? These are the echo for which Britain cannot avoid, even if he wants.
It is unnecessary to say, the German elections received only a fraction of attention that the political class of this country grows in the American elections. Equally predictable, greater than this absorbs a very limited amount of attention to fastening – one graduate of German media – with the populist alternative alternative für deutschland (AFD) to the Parties. As a result, it is probably probably Viknik on Sunday, the CDU-CSU coalition in central CDU under the probable next chancellor, Friedrich Merz, barely re-examined.
This competition occurs in relation to the background of economic failure, not success. The German economy decreased in 2023. And again in 2024. Years. It seems likely to stay in recession this year. This is added to the longest period of economic stagnation from the fall of Hitler in 1945. years. Whoever appears as a chancellor after Sunday, will face the elections very similar to those who face the Šarning Starmer and Rachel Reeges.
The reasons for the fall of Germany are not difficult to understand. Dependence from Germany on Russian energy meant prices rendered after invasion of Ukraine. The three-party coalition government Olaf Scholz, in government from 2021. year, the dependence has reduced – renewable sources now produce 60% of German energy – but not eliminated. German export cars became more expensive, while China slapped in advance in the production of cheaper electric vehicles. The tariff war with the US is now attacked.
All this has provided a system shock to the country remains strongly conditioned by its desire for permanent stability. “We used our old success and we don’t invest in new things,” Theo Kol commentator said Great Britain in variable Europe Podcast this week. “We have long lived in a kind of ‘Gore-Tex Republic’ … we wanted to be nice and comfortable inside and all unpleasant things have to be out.”
Ascension of AFD, in the middle of the perception that improper migration is out of control, is the most prominent sign that the old political age has ended. The violent murders in which migrants were accelerated during the election campaign in Magdeburg, Aschaffenburg and, last week, Munich. The latest political survey puts AFD at 21%, doubled in the previous federal elections in 2021. year, which is in second place on CDU-CSU at 29%, but in front of Scholz’s SPD to 16% and greenery 13%.
That token, however, win for Merzo CDU-CSU 23. February would be truly significant. It would be significant although 29% would be a decline of 42% that are parties in 2013. laid under Angel Merkel. It would show in the Serbian heart that the line can be held against populism rights. This is not a trivial lesson, especially after the defense of the French Assembly elections last year.
It would also be a voice of trust, although relatively weak, for one of several European remaining great fun in the middle. Once a strong party like French galists can only watch frustration and envy – not to say anything from Cemi Badenoch Conservatives. It would not be the least, that would be the survival to those like Elon Musk and JD Vance who actively promoted Afd from abroad.
However, it would also represent two big questions. The first and more immediate, there would be a coalition that Merz would build and the content of his program. Everything here depends on which parties qualify for the Bundestag and how many seats each wins. Merz repeatedly turned off to manage in AFD, so his main coalition partner could be reduced by Scholz’s SPD or, less likely to the commitment of MERZ growth, greenery.
If the surveys are right, as much as Merz appeared likely to be a weak coalition. This would give him a relatively few Leeway to drive the reforms of this kind that stands out – famous topics in readings in the UK, such as cuts and defense costs for defense. However, he is open to loosen the Constitution Enstrined “Debt Brake”, which blocks the highly needed public investment. Likely to take to Easter before we know a picture of a complete coalition.
Another, closely related, the question would be about Germany’s borders. Merz launched huge protests when Afd supported his account that allowed Germany to turn asylum seekers and other migrants on the border. It encouraged a rare reprimand from Merkel, that Merz had left the historically resonant firewall against the ultimate proper support. Nevertheless, border control is essential for any states to ensure security, including social welfare, its citizens, and Germany is not the only country in which voters seek greater efficiency.
Sunday elections is a critical European moment and would even be if Trump did not exist. The key issue is not at least at this stage, about the rise of extreme law. It is a constant sustainability of the central center or the adaptability of what Merkel, from the beginning of career as a party leader, called “new social capitalism.” The current recession put this vision on an unlimited test. Merz will be tried on the outcome, if he wins power. It is a moment that is important for Germany – but also for us.
2025-02-20 08:00:00
