Topchot – Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi (C), where Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister Sergey Ryabkov (Sadr) and Iranian Foreign Minister Kazim Garibadi welcomes a meeting on the Iranian nuclear issue in the Diwi -Diotai state in Bingi on March 14.
AFP | Gety pictures
When the United States rained bombs and missiles on Iranian nuclear sites on Saturday-which enters the war between Israel and Iran-it seems that Beijing stands in its support for its old ally in Tehran.
However, it is possible that its support through its limited weight as a mediator of peace in the region, and the upgraded upward treatment if I pressed the United States more than Beijing hurts me, experts said.
Beijing has approached Iran in recent years, with the cooperation of the two countries regularly Military exercises And signing a 25 -year strategic partnership in economic, military and security cooperation in 2021.
Iran’s population is about 91 millionMore than 9.8 million people in Israel, along with abundant crude oil reserves, made it a natural partner in Belt and Road Initiative in ChinaWhich described the global Times, which is the status of the Beijing government, as a means of “confronting hegemony”.
However, the initial economic interest of China lies in its arrival in Iranian oil and the Strait of Hormuz, one of the most central methods of global crude oil flows.
About 20 million barrels per day of crude oil, or five global consumption, flowed across the strait in 2024, according to the US Energy Information Administration. About half of the oil imports in Beijing moved through the main track – using a The solution system to overcome Western banksShipping services and transactions provided by the yuan to avoid the operation of the sanctions.
However, China is likely to keep its hands “Iran in any case.”
Wang added that Beijing, involved in a trade war with the United States, may find value in any chaos in the Middle East, because it will form a “greater distraction for Washington.”
China pledged to support Iran shortly after the Israeli attack on June 12, which Aden Beijing As “a violation of Iran’s sovereignty, security and regional integrity.”
But despite this preliminary offer to support Iran, Beijing’s speech has turned to become more measure, less than condemning Israel’s military actions, however Focus on the brokerage dialogue and the ceasefire.
Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi said to him Israeli isotope In a phone call, Israel’s strikes were “unacceptable”, but refrained from “condemnation” notes in the call.
Eurasia Group analysts, which may affect its economic and strategic interests, said, and it seeks to “contain tensions on tensions and prevent the luster of conflict to the broader region – which may affect its economic and strategic interests,” Beijing has greatly avoided “the direct condemnation of Israel while it is compatible with Iran.”
Shuhazad Qazi, the managing director of the beige book, said that the American strikes against Iran “have handed over an important point of discussion: it is America, not China, which threatens the world order and peace.”
Battle of endurance?
US Secretary of State Marco Rubio on Sunday China called for Iran to dissuade the closure of the Strait of Hormuz.
While many expect that Beijing will do so completely, some have suggested that the siege on the choice point may be favorable for China, because it stands better to prepare the strike from the American and European Union, and that China can easily turn into other alternative oil sources.
According to the Energy Information Administration, Initial oil sources in China Is Russia and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, Iraq and Oman, although a large part of Malaysia’s exports is re -transferred or transferred from Iran.
“China will be happy to see a significant increase in oil prices if it shakes the stability of the United States and Europe,” said Robin Brooks, an older colleague at the Brookings Institute.
“China may not be angry to pay more against oil from other sources, if that means that the United States is suffering more,” said Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global Advisors.
A spokesman for the Chinese Ministry of Foreign Affairs told reporters at a regular press conference on Monday that it is in the interest of the international community in the Persian Gulf and the surrounding corridors surrounding the surrounding waterways, that the answer to a question about the possible closure of Iran for the strait.
On Sunday, the Iranian parliament supported the decision to close the strait, pending the final approval by the National Security Council.
An opportunity in the crisis
Analysts said China may have hopes to work as a peacemaker, and based on the mediation of a peace agreement between Iran and the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia in 2023, but Israel is likely to be skeptical of China’s neutrality as a mediator.
The Chinese UN Ambassador Kong Fu targeted the United States in A. United Nations Security Council meeting On Sunday, saying that the country “strongly condemns” the American attacks on Iran and bombing nuclear facilities.
He also identified Israel’s Fu and called for the efforts made to end hostilities. “The parties must reach the conflict, in particular, to the immediate ceasefire to prevent the escalation of a vortex,” said Fu.
Andy Rochd, the founder of the Sinology LLC consulting company, said he suspects that Beijing will try to mediate a peace agreement between the United States and Iran, but he may still “discourage Iran from military revenge against the United States.”
He added, “Because this would destabilize the region and weaken the global economy, none of them arouses,” he added.
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2025-06-23 13:09:00
