Ford CEO says he is “chaos”. Sectors hardest hit by 25% steel and aluminum tariffs Donald Trump and Aluminum star-news.press/wp

Deepak Puri, Chief Investment Officer Deutsche Bank (Db) Private bank, talked to the Quartz for the latest War of our “smart investment” video series.

See the interview above and see the transcript below. The transcript of this conversation is slightly decorated for length and clarity.

Andy Mills (Am): How do you expect markets to react to Trump 25% of the tariffs on steel and aluminum?

Deepak Puri (DP): Well, I think companies exporting steel and aluminum in the US, they will have a little negative price response because the chances are with it, such tariffs will be the effect of replacement. And that is really what the administration is trying to do. They want to repay some of these industries back to the USA. They want to bring jobs that accompany this production back to the USA. So I think it’s a very fast knee reaction. But for the entire trade and tariff scenario, I would say that the things I follow on the following events, sequencing that are industry or sectors are much more foreground and central from the intensity of these events. And then retaliation. So, sequencing, intensity, retaliation. And I think that as President Trump is much better prepared for the start of the trade tariff much earlier in his second term, I think a lot of our trading partners are preparing for such work and the tariff ratings, so they are much more inclined to start beginning very quickly mutually mutually mutually. And you see that.

You’ve seen that in the beginning with Mexico in Canada, when they were announced, Then they retreated, but the Canadian authorities were very quickly to figure out their own tariffs by Tit-for-Tat. And I think similar things could happen, you know as a way of reciprocity for these steel and aluminum tariffs. However, saying that, I think that is one of these goals of this administration to reduce the trade deficit. The United States is traded with almost a hundred countries, as much as that, and most of them we have a trade deficit, which means imports more from that country, and then export to them. And which President Trump says there should be a wonderful playground. You need to open your markets our goods and services just as we opened your markets to your goods and services, and these trade and heading are nothing but a negotiating chip that will reach that agreement. I’m not sure how fast, if you can ever reach the trade balance with the fact that the American consumer has a much greater consumption of the rest of the world, right? We spend much more, so it will be very difficult to tell other countries that their population should begin to consume like us. Culturally not just there. So I think the trade deficit will stay with us. However, this is achieving some ships because something that is worn on, so follows through their campaign promises to some of these swing countries where he resolutely won.

AM: Steel stocks react positively in American markets on these tariffs. Do you see other sectors influenced or positively or negatively?

DP: It will really be, even if the dynamics do not change overnight, it will be a large offer in prices for some of the sectors in which the tariffs can be next tariffs. And there were talks with regard to pharmaceutical, semiconductors, cars. These are three main industries in which tariffs could come from countries that produce them and then export to our country. Thus, local pharmaceutical companies, local car manufacturers, can be in a better position for trade and tariff reproduction. But I will say that it is a factor that you may want to consider when doing your initial stock due attention to whose stocks of your choice or which sector chooses. Since countless factors affecting the Stock Movement, it is a macro background where we are the economy that plays a much greater role, fundamental corporate health and feasibility. Do you give earnings? What is your business model? Is it additive? Or have you increased market share? So I think they should also play a role next to the trade and tariff things we talk about.

AM: Ford Executive Director went out and said that these tariffs cause chaos in the auto industry. How do you see them playing in that sector?

DP: Yes, Autos is one of the key pain in the pain she at least to pay much less, we have fewer tariffs on foreign car manufacturers of these companies for American car manufacturers. So it should be a field for playing levels. Saying that one of the reasons inflation was so high due to the used car sales. And then we’ll get information about inflation tomorrow. And I wonder what part of the month’s increase comes from a used car price. So this is something that happens, it’s a secular trend, it seems. Post-Pandemic, people were much more prone to buy an additional car, maybe go to your other home. And that is now left even three or four years after the pandemic. So there are a lot more requirements for a reason. And if you will have a supply disorder, they will put pressure up at the cost of the car, which will then lead to a larger inflation.

Now, one thing I feel, and we didn’t talk much about it, it’s inflation. Almost all trade and tariffs are devastating in the supply chain. And the initial reaction tends to increase inflation can increase. For now, it wasn’t the case, but it’s one area I want everyone to be focused, are the expectations of inflation called Nenanhodina? They were quite anchored to about 3% for the next year, the next five years. Do they start going up? Because it will be a nice sign to apply trade and tariff conversation because people now expect it to become much more inflationary, and then the market market will react, which essentially may have an impact on the market. So how it flows in the narrative inflation is really the key to exit, given the cars, but the wider shop and tariff narrative.

AM: It’s really interesting. A ja sam znatiželjan kako se ovo trese jer Fed očito gleda inflaciju, a Trump ima mišljenja o tome šta bi hranjen trebao učiniti, a onda ima i svoj dnevni red, što može da bi se moglo okrenuti, ovisno o tome što se događa, ovisno about what happens with inflation.

DP: Absolutely. And I think that’s why the cards are very close to Trump President Chest. We just don’t know. But I think the administration knows that one of the reasons is lost judges for inflation. So that there are policies that only encouraged more inflation, given that the middle will not come so far, it would be a little short-sighted.

Another thing I would say is that I think if you are President Trump and this administration, they do not look at it as a four-year term. They look at this as next 15, 16 months. The key date for them is really 4. July, 2026. years. And that is a difficult word, but it is a semi-lower anniversary of the independence declaration, 250. years. And considering that will be such a historical moment with the president who has this panache for great moments and historical moments, it is hard for me to see that these are politics, yes they may be on steroids, but they may not be assigned if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot collapse if it starts if they can be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot collapse if it starts if it starts if they can be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed if they cannot be crashed. influence the actual economy and stock market. So, I think President Trump wants to enter this 250. Anniversary with a lot more optimism about the right economy and the stock market, and they will do everything that needs to be stopped for now.

AM: If you had one final thought to give investors, what would that be?

DP: If you are only strictly talking about trade and tariffs, my first reaction would not be to respond to everything that comes out of administration because the markets work in mysterious and complicated ways. That would be a driving factor, but I think it could be short-lived to make that decision. So you want to look at other variables that can affect the stock market. Another thing I would say was that the trade and tariff wars, obviously there, and I don’t think about the next three years, we won’t come anywhere around it. But on the other hand, keep in mind your personal goals. These are the externalists you have little control. And in some cases, only pure noise can, but if it didn’t really change, it’s if your personal situation, the biggest risk for your portfolio is not exactly whether to be more in the tariff, whether they will be a recession, how they work. It really is your ability to meet the goal you start investing in the first place. Are you on your way? Dakle, za takve stvari, uvijek je bolje zadržati svoje emocije, budite malo objektivniji uz vašu procjenu rizika, uz vašu povratnu očekivanja i uzmite, znate, oni kao, a to su, a to su, a to su, a oni, vozni faktor For your investments than taking signs from outside.